Understanding the income-waste relationship in Europe

In the context of the course Statistics and Data Science of the Master in Sustainable Management and Technology, three SMT students – Simon Chappatte, Apolline Bertin, and Alain Franco – studied the relationship between income and waste in Europe. Here are some highlights of their work. You can find the full article on Medium.

Why does it matter?

In 2020, the European Union generated more than 2.1 billion tonnes of waste, corresponding to over 4,815 kilograms per person. To put this into perspective, that’s equivalent to 16 full bathtubs of trash per individual or the combined weight of three fully grown hippopotami. This staggering figure raises a fundamental question: What drives household waste production? Is waste an unavoidable consequence of consumption and, by extension, economic growth? To answer these questions, we investigated the key drivers of household waste production and explored whether social factors, such as environmental awareness, could mitigate its impact. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for designing effective waste management policies.

The main findings

Our research underscores three key findings:

1) Income and waste are positively correlated, with a potential causal relationship. More precisely, a 1% increase in median income is associated with an additional 1.86 kilograms of household waste per person.

2) Environmental awareness moderates this effect. In countries with higher levels of environmental awareness, the influence of income on household waste is significantly weaker. Conversely, in countries with lower environmental awareness, waste production is more strongly driven by income levels.

3) A U-shaped pattern emerges between income and waste. Household waste production initially rises with income up to a certain threshold, after which it declines in very high-income countries—supporting the Kuznets curve hypothesis. However, the long-term sustainability of this trend remains uncertain and requires further investigation.

While our results are based on data-driven research and existing literature, it is important to interpret them with caution, acknowledging their possible limitations and the need for further research.

What to do with it?

These findings underscore the importance of tailoring waste management policies to the specific conditions of each country. Although household waste generally increases with income, local factors—such as environmental awareness—play a crucial role in shaping waste production. By incorporating these insights, policymakers can design more effective interventions that not only reduce waste but also support the shift toward a more sustainable, circular economy.

For a more in-depth analysis of the diverse factors influencing waste production, please consult our full article.